The Global Index of the Economic Activity Indicator (ICAE), base 100 in 2007-2008, reached 149.1 in the first quarter of fiscal year 2018-2019 (October - December 2018), against 148.4 in first quarter of the previous year, a modest year-on-year growth of 0.4%. This slight increase comes mainly from the upward trend in the tertiary sector, as the primary and secondary sectors have moved lower.

ICAE Analysis of the Primary Sector :

Primary Sector Activities declined at an annual rate of 2.0% in the first quarter of fiscal year 2019. This represents a clear reversal from the same period in the previous year in which ICAE primary sector was up 4.2%. This negative trend is the result of a decrease in the two sub-branches, namely agriculture (-2.0%) and mining (-3.4%).

ICAE Analysis of the Secondary Sector :

The Secondary Sector Index recorded a year-on-year decrease of 1.9% in the first quarter of fiscal year 2018-2019, compared to 3.0% in the first quarter of the previous fiscal year. This negative result is due to the downward trend of some of its branches. Manufacturing Industries -1.8% year-on-year, Construction down -1.4%, on an annualized basis, and the Electricity and Water Production and Distribution Division Index fell, at an annual rate, by -7.5% in the first quarter. This negative result of the sector results from the unfavorable behavior displayed by its two components: Electricity (-4.2%) and Water (-27.2%).

Analysis of the ICAE of the Tertiary Sector :

In contrast to the other two sectors, the Commercial Sector's ICAE increased by + 2.2% year-on-year during the first three months of fiscal year 2019. However, this increase is lower than that of + 3.4% recorded during the first quarter of the same period past year. Excluding the Restaurant and Hotel business, -1.6% this upward trend was supported by all other branches of the sector : Transportation and Communications +2.8% for this quarter, against + 5.6% (Transport +2.3% and Telecommunications + 3.3%) during the same period last year; Financial Institutions +4.2% in the first quarter of the fiscal year compared to + 1.3% in the first quarter of the previous fiscal year. This upward variation in the financial sector is due in particular to a better performance by commercial banks; the Other Merchant Services branch (combining real estate, health and education) increased + 2.5%, year-on-year, in the first quarter of fiscal year 2018-2019, compared to 1.8% recorded in the same period period of the previous fiscal year.

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HL/ HaitiLibre