In the 4th quarter of the 2023-2024 fiscal year at the national level, the persistence of multidimensional shocks continues to hamper activities in all economic sectors.

At the national level, the stalemate in the generalized crisis continues to negatively impact economic activity. This deleterious situation has led to the failure of many companies. This has resulted in a decline in production in all sectors of activity, which has contributed to the deterioration of the job market already weakened by the waves of migration favored by emigration programs [particularly American]. Similarly, agricultural activities have also been constrained by the forced displacement of certain farmers, while the performance of this sector remains conditioned by climatic shocks and the unavailability of certain inputs (seeds, fertilizers).

This economic underperformance is a continuation of the observed sluggishness. Also, growth projections for the Haitian economy now rely on a 4% contraction in GDP for the 2023-2024 financial year. [4.2% confirmed at the end of the financial year by the BRH https://www.haitilibre.com/en/news-43934-haiti-news-zapping.html ]

Similarly, the climate of insecurity that persisted in the 4th quarter of 2024 remains a factor hampering the dynamics of domestic trade, which contributed to the increase in product prices in the economy. Although inflation remains at a high level, its rate of increase slowed during the quarter under study, compared to the previous quarter (27.9% in September compared to 29.2% in June 2024). This reduction in inflationary pressures results, among other things, from the stability of the exchange rate and the decrease in the money supply following the decline in credit granted to the State. https://www.haitilibre.com/en/news-43997-haiti-economy-analysis-of-haiti-s-economic-performance-2024.html

Outlook :

Growth forecasts are based on a decline in GDP for fiscal year 2024, reflecting the longest period of recession recorded by the Haitian economy, i.e. 6 consecutive years of economic contraction https://www.haitilibre.com/en/news-43934-haiti-news-zapping.html .

The outlook for 2024-2025 depends on the evolution of the global macroeconomic framework and socio-political developments, as well as the security situation in Haiti.

In the short term, the dynamism of the agricultural sector will largely depend on the easing of constraints on food marketing channels resulting from the more or less satisfactory harvest of the spring campaign considering the seasonal average. This situation should contribute to increasing the supply and distribution of local products between the different geographical regions, with positive impacts on price developments in the economy.

On the tax front, achieving the revenue targets set in the 2024-2025 budget remains essential for maintaining zero monetary financing as planned, which would be favorable to the contained evolution of inflation and the exchange rate.

In terms of foreign trade, the growth in exports and imports is strongly linked to the recovery of economic activities, which should be driven by an improvement in the security climate.

Finally, the growth in private transfers without counterpart received continues to be conditioned by the dynamism of the American economy, the main country of origin of these migratory remittances, in a wait-and-see context mainly due to the upcoming installation of the new administration in the United States.

Download the complete BRH Monetary Policy Note (PDF in French 17 pages) : https://www.haitilibre.com/docs/Note-sur-la-politique-monetaire-Quatrieme-trimestre-de-lexercice-fiscal-2023-2024-juillet-septembre-2024.pdf

HL/ BRH/ HaitiLibre