With just days to go before the start of hurricane season (June 1), forecasters at the National Weather Service of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are predicting a below-normal hurricane season for the Atlantic basin this year. NOAA's forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30, indicates a 35% chance of a near-normal season, a 10% chance of an above-normal season, and a 55% chance of a below-normal season.

The agency forecasts a total of 8 to 14 named storms (winds of 63 km/h or more). Of these, 3 to 6 are expected to become hurricanes (with winds of 75 mph or more), including 1 to 3 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4, or 5 with winds of 115 mph or more). NOAA has a 70% confidence level in these forecasts. An average season sees 14 named storms, including seven hurricanes, three of which are major hurricanes.

"With the most advanced forecast modeling and hurricane tracking technologies, NOAA and the National Weather Service are prepared to deliver real-time storm forecasts and warnings," said Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick.

"NOAA’s rapid integration of advanced technology, including AI-based weather models, drones, and next-generation satellite data [...] combined with the unmatched expertise of our National Weather Service forecasters, will produce the most accurate forecasts possible to protect communities in harm’s way," said NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs.

The Atlantic season is expected to be below normal due to competing factors. El Niño, which tends to reduce the number of tropical storms and hurricanes, is predicted to develop and intensify during the season, while Atlantic Ocean temperatures are expected to be slightly above normal and trade winds likely to be weaker than average.

"Although El Niño’s impact in the Atlantic Basin can often suppress hurricane development, it’s essential to review your hurricane preparedness plan now. It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season..." A single storm is enough to make the season catastrophic. Visit https://www.weather.gov/safety and https://www.ready.gov/ for important preparedness information, advised Ken Graham, Director of the NOAA National Weather Service.

Names of Atlantic Tropical Storms for 2026: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edward, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine, Kyle, Leah, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, and Wilfred.

See also :

https://www.haitilibre.com/en/news-47347-flash-first-major-forecasts-for-the-2026-hurricane-season-in-haiti.html

SL/ HaitiLibre