Rising energy prices, increased geopolitical tensions, inflation, deficits... In this new Monetary Policy Note, the BRH (Bank of the Republic of Haiti) presents the main indicators that marked the second quarter of fiscal year 2025-2026, an overview of the economic situation, the measures adopted to promote macroeconomic and financial stability, and the outlook for the coming months.

Summary in figures :

According to the IMF's April 2026 projections for the second quarter :

- Projected global growth in 2026: 3.1%;

- United States: estimated growth 2% (inflation 3.3%; unemployment 4.3%; policy rates 3.50% – 3.75%);

- Eurozone: Estimated growth 0.1% (inflation 2.6%; unemployment 6.2%; deposit facility rate 2%)

- Latin America and the Caribbean: Projected growth 2.2%

- Dominican Republic: Projected growth 4% for 2026 (inflation 4.63%; policy rate 5.25%)

Haitian Economy :

- Economic activity declined by 1.1% in the first quarter of the fiscal year

- Underperformance of the primary sector (-4%), secondary sector (-2.3%), and tertiary sector (-0.3%)

Displaced persons: nearly 1.45 million as of February 24, 2026

Nearly 5.83 million people facing food insecurity between March and June 2026

- Annual inflation: 20.6% (March 2026)

- Fuel price increase announced on March 31 2026

Public Finances :

- Tax Revenue: 54.7 billion Gourdes

- Total Resources: 102.8 billion Gourdes

- Net Treasury Bill Issuance: 40.9 billion Gourdes

- Budget Expenditures: 61.3 billion Gourdes

- Total Disbursements: 113.7 billion Gourdes (113,796.97 million)

- Overall deficit partially financed by advances from the Central Bank (BRH) amounting to 19.12 billion Gourdes.

External Sector & Exchange Rates :

- Exports: US$160.83 million

- Imports: US$1.19 billion

Trade Deficit: US$1.03 billion

Perspectives :

Haiti's economic dynamics remain subject to multiple shocks, linked both to the precarious national security situation and the potential repercussions of escalating conflicts in the Middle East. In a context of disruptions to the global oil market, the adjustment to pump prices decided by the Government, although slightly revised downward after the period under review (May 8, 2026), could exacerbate inflation. Indeed, the increase in transportation costs directly impacts the price of other goods and services. Furthermore, uncertainties in the Middle East threaten to increase Haiti's oil bill, thus intensifying pressures on the foreign exchange market.

Faced with the intensification of these shocks and the persistence of uncertainties, the Bank of the Republic of Haiti (BRH) intends to implement the necessary measures to preserve economic activity, in accordance with its mandate. Its actions will primarily target macroeconomic equilibrium and the stability of the financial system. In this regard, the extension of the Staff-Monitored Program (SMP) by the IMF until June 2027 will support the Central Bank's efforts, ensuring a credible institutional framework and the continuity of macroeconomic management.

Finally, the BRH reaffirms its commitment to revitalizing the national productive sector through support mechanisms for strategic sectors. This commitment is being realized through: a restructuring aimed at promoting greater financial inclusion in provincial cities and the strengthening of support mechanisms for Haitian small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), particularly those led by women, through key initiatives such as the Booster PME III program.

Download the BRH Monetary Policy Note for the 2nd quarter of 2025-2026 (PDF in French, 18 pages) : https://www.haitilibre.com/docs/Note-sur-la-politique-monetaire-deuxieme-trimestre-de-lexercice-fiscal-2025-2026-janvier-mars-2026.pdf

HL/ SL/ HaitiLibre