The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) projects that the region will experience growth of 2.2% in 2026, a downward revision from the 2.3% estimated in December 2025. Cuba and Haiti are the main drivers of this decline.

The UN agency warns that 24 of the region's 33 countries will see their growth slow this year, marking four consecutive years with rates close to 2.3%, which ECLAC describes as a low-growth trap.

Cuba leads the contractions with a projected -6.5% for 2026, worsening the -3.8% drop recorded in 2025. Haiti, for its part, is expected to post -1.4% in 2026, a slight improvement compared to the -2.7% of the previous year.

The weight of these two economies on the Central American average is crucial: while the bloc is projected to grow by an average of 2.2% in 2026, ECLAC points out that “if these two economies are excluded, the average would be 3.9% in 2026, representing a slight increase compared to the 3.8% observed in 2025,” highlighting the distorting effect of these two economies in crisis.

The Cuban crisis worsened during the first months of 2026. Following the capture of Nicolás Maduro on January 3, Cuba lost between 80% and 90% of its Venezuelan crude oil imports, representing between 25,000 and 35,000 barrels per day.

Mexico suspended its oil supplies on January 9 under pressure from Washington, and President Trump signed Executive Order 14380 on January 29, imposing secondary tariffs on any country exporting oil to Cuba.

The Economist’s intelligence unit projected an even more severe contraction of -7.2% for Cuba in February by 2026, exceeding the ECLAC’s estimate.

The contrast within the region is stark: Guyana leads the way in growth with a projected 16.3% for 2026, driven by its oil sector, followed by Venezuela with 6.5%, Nicaragua with 4.5%, and Paraguay with 4.5%.

The external context is also not helping: the price of WTI oil during the first three weeks of April was 74% higher than the average for December 2025, generating global inflationary pressures that are particularly affecting already weakened economies like Cuba's.

While the Cuban regime of Miguel Díaz-Canel continues to blame the US embargo for the economic debacle, ECLAC data confirms that Cuba is by far the worst-performing economy in all of Latin America and the Caribbean.

The Cuban government has officially projected growth of 1% for 2026, a figure that independent economists consider completely detached from the reality on the island.

HL/ HaitiLibre