The revised forecast for the Atlantic hurricane season, released Friday, Aug. 3 by Colorado State University of Fort Collins (USA), now anticipates below average activity.

According to Philip J. Klotzbach, principal investigator of this report, there will be "fewer storms and fewer hurricane opportunities" than originally planned last April. According to the researcher this new situation is caused by tropical Atlantic waters "colder than normal" and at the same time there is a "relatively high" probability for a weak El Niño phenomenon in the months to come.

The report mentions that over the past month strong vertical winds and low pressures in the Caribbean are "negatively correlated" with an active season, meaning that under these conditions, there is generally less hurricanes.

The new forecast predicts 5 hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin (versus 7 before) and only one in the destructive categories (against 3 before), which would last only two days (instead of 7 before).

At the same time, the number of named storms planned, is now reduced from 14 to 12 and the days of disruption go from 70 to 53 days.

The probability of a major hurricane in the Caribbean region drops to 28% (historical average 42%)

Forecasts will now be updated every two weeks until October. Recall that the hurricane season in the Atlantic officially begins on June 1 and ends on November 30.

According to experts in meteorology, the rainy season will be less active in the Caribbean for the months of July, August and September. Indeed, in the Atlantic, the cold anomaly that stretches from Africa to the Caribbean, along the tropics of cancer, tends to limit the development of tropical waves and rainy activity. In response, atmospheric circulation confirms potentially less unstable air masses by reinforcing subtropical high pressures.

General forecasts for Haiti from August 3rd to 5th :

In Haiti, heavy showers are expected in some areas or cities of the country such as Jacmel and the Southwest side of the Selle while that thunderstorms could affect Lower Artibonite. Rainy activities may occur in some geographical departments of the Republic. In summary, conditions will still be favorable for rains over the next few days. However, by Monday or Tuesday, the arrival of an imposing mass of dust, currently on the eastern Atlantic, could significantly limit rainy activities.

SL/ HaitiLibre